Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. They authors two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
